10
Casares
5yo Gelding · 9-2
Deauville · Prix De L'avant-port D'honfleur Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#10
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Deauville | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-02-18 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-01-26 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 2 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 28/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 93% | +0.25 |
| 12/01/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 26/01/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 27% | -0.47 |
| 18/02/2026 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 25/05/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/06/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 27% | -0.28 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 14/07/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |