4
Caramelito
7yo Gelding · 9-7
Deauville · Prix Des Greniers A Sel Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Cholet | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Meydan | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Meydan | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Meydan | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 10/08/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 59% | -0.02 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/12/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/01/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 29% | -0.62 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 92% | +0.32 |