12
Hermes Wood
4yo Gelding · 8-9
Deauville · Prix Des Greniers A Sel Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength90%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 93% | +0.46 |
| 11/02/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 54% | -0.20 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 77% | +0.06 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 58% | +0.16 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 79% | +0.73 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 87% | +0.18 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 77% | +0.30 |