6
Johnny Hammer
5yo Gelding · 9-6
Deauville · Prix Des Greniers A Sel Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#11
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Chantilly | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |
| 09/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 10/05/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.58 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |