1
Tiego The First
4yo Colt · 9-10
Deauville · Prix Des Greniers A Sel Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#10
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 1 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | 1 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-09-05 | Chantilly | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2025-08-10 | Deauville | ? | 10th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 03/06/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 28/06/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 10/08/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 05/09/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 08/03/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |