11
Free Choice
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 69
Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 07/03/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/7 | 97% | 71% | -0.26 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 40% | -0.54 |