3
Incorporated
4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 47
Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |