8
Major League
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 58
Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength87%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 01/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 12/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 02/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 88% | -0.07 |