7
Tuff Heart
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 59
Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength75%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2024 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 22% | -0.38 |
| 06/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 28/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 08/01/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |