Lucky Boss
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 61
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-07 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-15 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Hawthorne | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 19/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 30/10/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 15/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 07/01/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |