4
Verrazano First
9yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 80
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2023-05-09 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2023-04-24 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2021 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 07/06/2021 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 09/07/2021 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 24/04/2023 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 09/05/2023 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |