8
Bad Obsession
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 61
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 21/06/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 12/07/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |