3
Heavens Hound
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 60
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength63%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/03/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |