9
License To Steal
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 69
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/12/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 29/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |