4
Moonrise Drive
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 67
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 04/09/2025 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 13% | -0.72 |
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 16/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 26/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 8/13 | 97% | 0% | -0.97 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |