5
Bikini Martini
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 82
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 15/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/08/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 02/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |