3
Grayhop
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 73
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength55%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 28/10/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |