1
Irish Spark
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 77
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
24%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength35%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 03/10/2024 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 26/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |