1
Lit Miss Hat Trick
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 81
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-07-22 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 22/04/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 05/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 22/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |