9
Sally's Suprise
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 83
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 10/01/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 25/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 21/04/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |