8
Secret Operation
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 80
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/06/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 03/08/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |