4
Big Commerce
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 89
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 1m 2f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 38% | -0.49 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |