9
Brown Reserve
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 83
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 1m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 10/06/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/06/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 14/04/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |