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Fire Bryan

6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 75

Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 1m 2f

#7

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Oaklawn Park 28/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 86 · 1m1f Fas 121 · below its mark28/03/2025 · OR 86 par28/03C8OR 86C8 @ Oaklawn Park 26/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 89 · 1m Fas 118 · below its mark26/04/2025 · OR 89 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 28/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 79 par28/12C8OR 79C8 @ Oaklawn Park 07/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m 118 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 12/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 82 par12/03C8OR 82C8 @ Oaklawn Park 10/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 72 · 6f 119 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 72 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 67 · 1m Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 67 par16/05C6OR 67C6 @ Fairmount Park 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 74 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 74 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 75 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 75 par20/06C6OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-20Fairmount Park?4th3rd+1
2026-05-30Fairmount Park?2nd1st+1
2026-05-16Fairmount Park?1st0th+1
2026-04-10Oaklawn Park?7th8th−1
2026-03-12Oaklawn Park?8th9th−1
2026-02-07Oaklawn Park?11th12th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/037/0216/0520/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength83%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/03/20253rd16/116%78%+0.62
26/04/202510th14/126%10%-0.16
28/12/20259th25/10%11%+0.11
07/02/202611th33/10%9%+0.09
12/03/20268th33/10%0%0.00
10/04/20267th40/10%40%+0.40
16/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
30/05/20262nd9/276%90%+0.14
20/06/20264th11/486%67%-0.19