8
Major Contender
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 76
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sunland Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Sunland Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sunland Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sunland Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/02/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 08/03/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 16/03/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |