5
Mcmoney
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 96
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 11% | -0.47 |
| 10/07/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |