Nightwind
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 63
Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 1m 2f
#9
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 05/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 09/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 13/09/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 14/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |