10
Hanabi
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 53
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength81%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2024 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 06/05/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 18/10/2025 | 10th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |