6
Hot T'mater
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 54
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 09/09/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 26/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |