4
Lauren's War
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 51
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/04/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 05/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |