5
Awesome Outlaw
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 58
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Remington Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Remington Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Remington Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-21 | Remington Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength17%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 28/04/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 14/05/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 21/08/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 21/12/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 09/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/02/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |