1
Junior Bug
9yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 79
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 12
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength89%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 28/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 10/01/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |