11
Karayel
9yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 55
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-19 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-10 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-04-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength2%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2023 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/06/2024 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 03/11/2024 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 26/04/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 10/06/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/09/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |