4
Minnesota Moon
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 66
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength12%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 14/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |