5
Monsieur Patat
9yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65
Ffos Las · Happy 70th Birthday Brian Glanville Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Windsor | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kempton | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Kempton | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Goodwood | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 08/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 22/10/2025 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 18% | +0.13 |
| 08/11/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |