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Safari Dream

6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 70

Ffos Las · Happy 70th Birthday Brian Glanville Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

60%

Place Prob

39%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made all at Salisbury in May and best effort since when well backed and third of 6 at Bath 3 weeks ago, coming clear of the others. That form looks solid and he's considered back down in grade in refitted cheekpieces with Oisin Murphy up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Windsor 08/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 71 · 6f12y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 71 par8/094OR 714 @ Salisbury 02/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 70 · 6f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Nottingham 23/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 70 · 6f18y Hvy 137 · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 70 par23/105OR 705 @ Kempton 25/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 69 · 7f Sta 132 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 68 · 5f160y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 68 par17/044OR 685 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 67 · 5f212y Goo 132 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 67 par21/055OR 675 @ Ffos Las 23/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f Gd 138 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Bath 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 71 · 5f160y Fm 138 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 71 par15/075OR 71projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Bath53rd3rd0
2026-06-23Ffos Las55th5th0
2026-05-21Catterick57th7th0
2026-05-14Salisbury51st1st0
2026-04-17Bath44th3rd+1
2026-03-25Kempton53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0925/0321/0515/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/09/202511th11/142%9%-0.33
02/10/20254th25/10%73%+0.73
23/10/20255th16/116%64%+0.48
25/03/20263rd11/271%60%-0.11
17/04/20264th6/168%70%+0.02
14/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
21/05/20267th5/287%0%-0.87
23/06/20265th11/271%33%-0.38
15/07/20263rd5/287%60%-0.27