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4

First Mate

2yo Colt · 9-4

Ffos Las · EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 80y

#3

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

€55,000 Naval Crown half-brother to 3 winners, including 7f-8.6f winner Romanovich. 18/1, in need of the experience and offered something to work on in 6f Newbury novice a fortnight ago. That race looks strong and he should improve stepping up in trip. One to note.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 6f GF 12818/074
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Newbury47th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength19%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20267th18/15%33%+0.28