Bird Of War
3yo Colt · 9-10 · OR 65
Ffos Las · Ken Meredith Memorial Race Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 80y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Bath | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Nottingham | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Leicester | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Yarmouth | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 06/08/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 16/08/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 08/04/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 69% | +0.03 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |