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5

Our Dagger

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 58

Ffos Las · Ken Meredith Memorial Race Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 80y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored at Newcastle and Kempton for Daragh Bourke early last year. Well held both runs for Gerard Kyne at Galway last autumn and for another new yard in 7f Kempton handicap in March. More is required after another break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 8.2)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA47 @ Fairyhouse 10/07/2024 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 47 · 7f Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2024 · OR 47 par10/0747OR 476 @ Ffos Las 14/08/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 47 · 1m Hvy 123 · beat its mark14/08/2024 · OR 47 parBHA52 @ Curragh 22/10/2024 · Pos 17th of 24 · OR 52 · 7f Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/10/2024 · OR 52 par22/1052OR 526 @ Newcastle 31/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 52 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark31/01/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Kempton 12/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 55 · 7f Sta 130 · beat its mark12/02/2025 · OR 55 par12/026OR 555 @ Ayr 28/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 61 · 7f50y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/04/2025 · OR 61 parBHA61 @ Galway 09/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 61 · 7f Sft 131 · below its mark09/09/2025 · OR 61 par9/0961OR 61BHA60 @ Galway 27/10/2025 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 60 · 7f Hvy 142 · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 60 par5 @ Kempton 30/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 60 · 7f Sta 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 60 par30/035OR 60projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-30Kempton55th4th+1
2025-10-27GalwayBHA6015th15th0
2025-09-09GalwayBHA6112th12th−0
2025-04-28Ayr56th5th+1
2025-02-12Kempton61st1st0
2025-01-31Newcastle61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0731/019/0930/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20246th16/116%69%+0.53
14/08/20241st15/890%100%+0.10
22/10/202417th33/10%30%+0.30
31/01/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
12/02/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
28/04/20256th10/382%55%-0.28
09/09/202512th22/10%21%+0.21
27/10/202515th14/126%0%-0.26
30/03/20265th7/282%20%-0.62