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2

Sofian

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 61

Ffos Las · Ken Meredith Memorial Race Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 80y

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

31%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took this 12 months ago and got back on track with third of 4 in handicap over C&D 7 days ago. A likely player once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bath 04/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2025 · OR 67 par4/044OR 675 @ Leicester 26/04/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 65 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2025 · OR 65 par5 @ Ffos Las 29/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 63 · 1m Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2025 · OR 63 par29/065OR 635 @ Ffos Las 09/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 61 · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2025 · OR 61 par6 @ Ffos Las 05/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 60 · 7f80y Goo 131 · beat its mark05/08/2025 · OR 60 par5/086OR 606 @ Ffos Las 09/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 63 · 7f80y Hvy 133 · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 63 par6 @ Wolverhampton 17/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 63 · 7f36y Std 133 · below its mark17/03/2026 · OR 63 par17/036OR 636 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 62 · 7f80y Goo 140 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Ffos Las 28/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 61 · 7f80y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 61 par28/075OR 61projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Ffos Las53rd2nd+1
2026-06-30Ffos Las66th6th0
2026-03-17Wolverhampton68th8th0
2025-09-09Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2025-08-05Ffos Las61st1st0
2025-07-09Ffos Las58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/049/0717/0328/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength36%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20255th50/10%50%+0.50
26/04/202511th28/10%9%+0.09
29/06/20258th50/10%22%+0.22
09/07/20258th200/10%42%+0.42
05/08/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
09/09/20252nd4/179%80%+0.01
17/03/20268th33/10%22%+0.22
30/06/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
28/07/20263rd12/137%33%-0.04