Thestral
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 63
Ffos Las · Ken Meredith Memorial Race Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 80y
#5
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Kempton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Kempton | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 25/03/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |
| 12/04/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 08/07/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |