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Arbaawy

3yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 76

Ffos Las · Dandara Homes Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

87%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful colt but remains a maiden after 11 runs. Rare poor run when tenth of 11 in handicap at Ascot (1m, good to firm) 25 days ago. Booking of Loughnane a plus and holds leading claims back in maiden company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength62%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Windsor 01/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m31y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS1/0922 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 79 · 1m3y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 79 par4/104OR 792 @ Doncaster 24/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 79 · 1m Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ Newmarket 14/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 79 · 1m Gd 129 · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 79 par14/044OR 794 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 129 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 79 par16/053OR 793 @ Sandown 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 79 · 1m1f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 78 · 7f213y GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par10/073OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Ascot310th9th+1
2026-06-13Sandown34th3rd+1
2026-05-16Newbury33rd2nd+1
2026-05-08Ascot43rd3rd0
2026-04-14Newmarket44th4th0
2025-10-24Doncaster23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0924/1016/0510/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/20252nd15/261%89%+0.28
16/09/20255th10/147%50%+0.03
04/10/20253rd14/126%67%+0.40
24/10/20253rd9/276%50%-0.26
14/04/20264th11/142%73%+0.31
08/05/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
16/05/20263rd10/382%78%-0.05
13/06/20264th11/486%25%-0.61
10/07/202610th13/266%10%-0.56