7

Fallen Logic

3yo Filly · 9-2

Ffos Las · Dandara Homes Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twice-raced filly. 66/1, last of 3 in maiden at Chepstow (1m, good to firm) 19 days ago. Needs to take a big step forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ffos Las 23/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f80y Gd 12823/0644 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 1m14y GF 12816/074projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Chepstow43rd3rd0
2026-06-23Ffos Las48th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0616/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/06/20268th125/10%13%+0.13
16/07/20263rd66/10%0%0.00