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3

Gelato

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 66

Ffos Las · Golwg Gwendraeth Handicap · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

73%

Place Prob

56%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ex-Irish maiden who was much improved on second run for new yard with ready breakthrough win in 7-runner handicap here in June. Up 7 lb but that form has been franked. Big shout.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength27%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Tipperary 27/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f Yie 12127/05C?1 @ Tipperary 02/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Naas 04/08/2025 · Pos 20th of 21 · OR - · 5f205y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS4/08C5BHA67 @ Curragh 16/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 67 · 6f Gd 125 · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 67 parBHA64 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 64 · 5f Sft 135 · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 64 par18/0964OR 64BHA63 @ Down Royal 29/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 63 · 5f Yie 131 · below its mark29/09/2025 · OR 63 par5 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f160y Goo 125 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 60 par22/055OR 606 @ Ffos Las 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 59 · 7f80y Sft 130 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 59 par17/066OR 59projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-17Ffos Las61st2nd−1
2026-05-22Bath56th6th0
2025-09-29Down RoyalBHA639th11th−1
2025-09-18NaasBHA647th9th−1
2025-08-16CurraghBHA6712th14th−2
2025-08-04Naas?20th19th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0516/0822/0517/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength50%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20254th33/10%40%+0.40
02/07/20255th20/10%0%0.00
04/08/202520th125/10%5%+0.05
16/08/202512th14/126%0%-0.26
18/09/20257th8/158%45%-0.12
29/09/20259th20/10%27%+0.27
22/05/20266th11/142%38%-0.05
17/06/20261st16/116%100%+0.84