2
Station Bar
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 67
Ffos Las · Golwg Gwendraeth Handicap · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
24%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Salisbury | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bath | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Kempton | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Yarmouth | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Southwell | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 19/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 25/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 30/04/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 36% | -0.06 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |