Ada Rose

3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 57

Ffos Las · Dandara Homes Handicap · 1m 3f 209y

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C5.2

Today: 6

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-16	Wolverhampton	6	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-05-30	Lingfield	6	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-04-27	Wolverhampton	6	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-01-26	Wolverhampton	4	7th	5th	+2	5.4
2026-01-14	Lingfield	4	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2025-12-19	Southwell	5	13th	12th	+1	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 10

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength92%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/12/2025	13th	10/1	47%	8%	-0.40
14/01/2026	6th	66/1	0%	0%	0.00
26/01/2026	7th	125/1	0%	14%	+0.14
27/04/2026	3rd	28/1	0%	80%	+0.80
30/05/2026	9th	9/1	53%	11%	-0.42
16/06/2026	1st	14/1	26%	100%	+0.74