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Condotti

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 60

Ffos Las · Dandara Homes Handicap · 1m 3f 209y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains winless but he comes here in very good form, second of 12 in handicap at Ayr (1¼m, good to firm) 29 days ago. Not out of things in a change of headgear if his stamina holds out.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 70 · 1m GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2025 · OR 70 par30/065OR 705 @ Ffos Las 05/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 70 · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2025 · OR 70 par4 @ Haydock 04/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 70 · 1m2f42y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 70 par4/094OR 704 @ Chester 20/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 69 · 1m2f70y Hvy 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m2f1y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 67 par4/105OR 675 @ Wolverhampton 18/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 64 · 1m1f104y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 64 par6 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m1f Goo 136 · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 63 par29/056OR 636 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 60 · 1m68y Goo 137 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m2f Gd 140 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 60 par6/076OR 60projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-06-10Hamilton63rd3rd0
2026-05-29Carlisle69th9th0
2025-10-18Wolverhampton54th3rd+1
2025-10-04Redcar511th10th+1
2025-09-20Chester46th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0620/0929/056/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength66%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/06/20253rd18/15%83%+0.78
05/08/20252nd2/189%83%-0.06
04/09/20257th12/137%54%+0.17
20/09/20256th12/137%0%-0.37
04/10/202511th28/10%0%0.00
18/10/20254th14/126%67%+0.40
29/05/20269th9/153%0%-0.53
10/06/20263rd9/153%80%+0.27
06/07/20262nd5/174%91%+0.17