Houndswood Willow
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 55
Ffos Las · Dandara Homes Handicap · 1m 3f 209y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 8.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Chepstow | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 4 | 16th | 14th | +2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Haydock | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Haydock | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/04/2026 | 16th | 150/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 19/05/2026 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |