3
Burn Notice
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 83
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 04/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 19/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/11/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |