5
Lucas's Mischief
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 79
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-01-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 27/08/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 21/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 17/01/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |